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mercoledì 31 agosto 2011

USD Gains vs. EUR & CHF, Falls vs. JPY

The US dollar managed to gain against the euro and the Swiss franc today, but fell against the Japanese yen as mixed fundamentals left traders unsure about prospects for the US currency.

The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller House Price Index fell 4.5 percent in June on year-over-year basis. That’s better result than the predicted 4.7 percent decline and the drop by 4.6 percent in May. On the other hand, Conference Board consumer sentiment was much worse than forecasts, falling from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August, while analysts hope that the index will retreat just to 52.1.

Tomorrow’s reports don’t look good for the dollar either. The ADP Employment report is expected to show slower growth of employed Americans by 102,000, compared to the July growth by 114,000. Economists say that Chicago PMI will show a drop to 54.3 in August from 58.8 in July.

EUR/USD went down from 1.4510 to 1.4444 as of 21:05 GMT today, while intraday it touched the low of 1.4382. USD/JPY dropped from 76.84 to 76.73, while USD/CHF advanced from 0.8156 to 0.8201.

Building Permits in Australia & New Zealand Rise, Aussie & Kiwi Gain

The Australian and New Zealand currencies rose today, before declining later, after the reports showed that number of building permits in these countries increased in July.

New Zealand building consents rose 6.3 percent in July, following a fall of 4.3 percent in June. Australian building consents increased 1.0 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis after falling 3.6 percent in June. Currently, the kiwi tends to decline, while the Aussie lost all its gains.

NZD/USD rose from 0.8459 to 0.8486 as of 12:57 GMT today and earlier it touched the intraday high of 0.8535 — the highest level since August 4. AUD/USD traded at 1.0644 today, while earlier it climbed from 1.0656 to 1.0684.

lunedì 29 agosto 2011

Fundamentals are bad for USD, but week wasn’t bad

The fundamentals this week were negative for the US dollar, weakening the currency against some major counterparts, but performance of the greenback wasn’t that bad, considering all the pressure to the downside.

There were plenty of bad new for the dollar this week. Bad housing data, rising unemployment claims and slower that expected growth of the US economy. The week ended with the speech of Ben Bernanke, who hinted at possibility of additional stimulus without detailing an actual plan.

The dollar was dragged down by the unfavorable fundamentals and fell against the euro and commodity currencies (including the currencies of Canada, Australia and New Zealand). On the other hand, the dollar gained against the franc and rallied versus the yen before losing its gains by the end of the week as there aren’t many choices for investors who need a safe currency, but afraid of interventions of Japan and Switzerland. The pound also fell against the greenback as Britain has its own problems that erase attractiveness of the nation’s currency.

Next week may also be hard for the dollar. Analysts predict another unfavorable report about hosing and are pessimistic about employment data.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.4376 to 1.4498, while during the week it dropped to 1.4327. USD/CHF climbed from 0.7904 to 0.8058 and reached the daily high of 0.8157. AUD/USD surged from 1.0380 to 1.0569.


sabato 27 agosto 2011

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Franc Falls as Bernanke Improves Sentiment on Markets

The Swiss franc slumped today after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke spoke today, improving sentiment on markets, while rumors abound that Switzerland’s policy makers are preparing another action to weaken the Swiss currency.

There are different opinions on what steps Switzerland is going to take in order to weaken its currency. Some analysts speculate that the Swiss National Bank is preparing another intervention. Some experts predict that local banks may impose charges for franc deposits. Whatever the truth is, the rumors undermine franc’s strength.

Optimism, caused by the speech of Chairman Bernanke, influenced the franc even more, perhaps. Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, thought:

What Bernanke said suggested was perhaps the world’s economic weakness is not so bad that it warrants another round of QE, and that helped to damp demand for the franc. There has also been speculation about the SNB’s possible further action on the franc, which makes the market cautious.

USD/CHF climbed from 0.7928 to 0.8060 as of 20:11 GMT today after touching the daily high of 0.8157, the highest level since July 22. EUR/CHF advanced from 1.1401 to 1.1684. CHF/JPY sank from 97.61 to 95.05, while earlier it reached the lowest price since June 20 — 94.44

Dollar Drops After Bernanke Speech & GDP Report

The US dollar fell today after the report showed that the US economy expanded with slower pace than was predicted by specialists and Federal Reserve Ben S. Bernanke hinted at possibility of additional stimulus.

According to the preliminary report, US gross domestic product grew 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2011, following the increase by 0.4 percent in the first quarter. The advance estimate promised growth by 1.3 percent, while market participants expected rise by 1.1 percent.

Bernanke said today at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed has means to further stimulate the US economy, stating “the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus”. Chairman added that in the long run the economy can overcome its current difficulties:

Notwithstanding the severe difficulties we currently face, I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if — and I stress if — our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome.

The speech was well received by markets and stocks advanced, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up 0.7 percent after it earlier fell 2 percent.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.4377 to 1.4476 as of 17:00 GMT today, following the drop to 1.4328. GBP/USD rose from 1.6278 to 1.6341 after it dropped to 1.6206 earlier. Meanwhile, USD/JPY tumbled from 77.44 to 76.67

venerdì 26 agosto 2011

Pound Goes Down as UK Economy Slows

The Great Britain pound weakened against the Japanese yen and slowed its advance versus the US dollar after the report showed the UK economy grew with slower pace in the second quarter.

The revised figure for growth of UK gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2011 was 0.2 percent, the same as in the preliminary estimate. It indicates slower expansion, compared to 0.5 percent growth in the first quarter. The report also mentioned that several special events affected Britain’s economy in Q2: the additional April public holiday, the royal wedding and the aftereffects of the Japanese tsunami.

GBP/JPY fell from 126.12 to 125.68 today as of 9:24 GMT and touched the daily low of 125.41 earlier. GBP/USD climbed from 1.6278 to 1.6332.


giovedì 25 agosto 2011

Australia’s Dollar Weakens on Germany’s Consumer Confidence

The Australian dollar fell today against most major currencies, before rebounding, as the report showed consumer confidence in Germany declined this month, reducing appeal of higher-yielding assets.

The drop of German confidence wasn’t very big as the GfK indicator retreated just to 5.2 in August from 5.3 in the month before. The report explained:

Despite the current crisis on the financial markets, Germans’ willingness to buy is surprisingly robust and increased further in August from an already high level. However, the worsening of the international debt crisis and rising fears of a return to recession for the global economy have clearly left their mark on the economic optimism of Germans.

AUD/USD traded at about 1.0466 today as of 11:16 GMT after dropping from 1.0471 to 1.0428.

GBP Falls vs. EUR with Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales

The Great Britain pound fell today against the euro and fluctuated versus the dollar as the signs that the economy of the UK is weakening made the sterling less attractive to Forex traders.

Nationwide Building Society reported consumer confidence fell from 51 to 49 in July and said:

Any substantial improvement in confidence is unlikely during the remainder of 2011.

The Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey showed the balance of retail at -14 percent in August, much lower than July balance of -5 percent. The report said:

Retail sales volumes fell on a year ago in August at the fastest pace for over a year.

The pound also fell as gains of European stock reduced demand for the currency as a haven against the crisis in Europe.

EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8802 to 0.8825 today as of 10:42 GMT, while 0.8835 was the highest level during this trading session. GBP/USD traded near its opening level of 1.6372 after falling to the low of 1.6344.

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mercoledì 24 agosto 2011

Franc gains as market return to risk aversion

The Swiss franc snapped its decline today as the speculation about potential slowdown of the global economic growth returned attractiveness to safe currencies.

The poor report about business climate in Germany was followed by the data from Eurostat that showed an unexpected decline of industrial new orders in the Eurozone. The decline was 0.7 percent in June, while economists expected an increase by 0.6 percent. Market analysts expect more negative reports this week, including data about German consumer confidence and US GDP. Traders returned to risk aversion just as they began to fell appetite for risk.

USD/CHF fell from 0.7921 to 0.7902 and EUR/CHF dropped from 1.1439 to 1.1404 today as of 12:04 GMT.

martedì 23 agosto 2011

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Dollar falls on Europe & China manifacturing

The US dollar declined today, along with other safe currencies, as manufacturing growth in Europe and China was somewhat higher than was predicted by forecasters, reducing demand for the currency as a safe haven.

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI was at 49.8 in August, somewhat higher than the median forecast of 49.7 and the highest level in two months. Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at 49.7 this month, a little higher than expected (49.6), but lower than July figure — 50.4. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.5 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index went up 1.6 percent.

EUR/USD rose from 1.4357 to 1.4483 today as of 10:33 GMT and posted the high of 1.4499 during the day. GBP/USD climbed from 1.6450 to 1.6544, while reached the intraday high of 1.6572 earlier.

[forex news]

Yuan gets stronger as China expected

The Chinese yuan gained today on the speculation China will allow the currency to appreciate to combat inflation that accelerates with fast pace.

China’s central bank set the exchange rate at 6.3987 per dollar, increasing the fixing for the second straight day. Market analysts explain that China needs help of a strong currency to deal with the fast growth of the consumer prices. Today’s report that showed growth of manufacturing confirmed the trend for increasing inflation remains in place.

USD/CNY went down from 6.4015 to 6.3980 today as of 11:07 GMT, gaining 0.07 percent. That was the fist gain in five sessions.

[forex news]

lunedì 22 agosto 2011

Investors seeing gold in U.S. farmland, infrastructure

Corn gains in past five years almost as impressive as gold

The overall U.S. economy may be struggling against a double-dip recession but in farm country, the boom times have rarely been better.

Farmland prices are setting records and farmer incomes have been buoyed by exports and biofuels, easing the pain of some rough summer weather from drought, floods and fires.

Amid China’s voracious appetite for grains and worries about climate hurting crops and food supplies in many countries, U.S. agriculture’s attraction as the world’s breadbasket has become a beacon for Wall St.

Firms like Omaha-based Gavilon, owned by Ospraie, a hedge fund associated with George Soros and Canada-listed Ceres Global Ag have been buying up grain elevators from Wyoming to Toronto.

That is unusual: Investors owning grain silos. But analysts say it’s not what it seems. No one wants to hold corn as a long-term asset, like gold bullion. But storing and moving grain for others has become a very profitable business.

William Wilson, a consultant and professor at North Dakota State University, said that 10 years ago you could store grain at elevators 2.5 to 3 cents per bushel per month. Now costs can be 8-10 cents a month depending on location or grain.

“We’ve seen a lot of big new entrants into the agricultural commodity industry including White Box, Gavilon and others who are expanding,” Wilson said, referring to Minnesota-based hedge fund White Box Advisers, once an owner of grain storage.

“One reason has been the shift to ethanol having a bigger part of the market, where they demand quick access to corn on a 12-month basis,” Wilson said.

“Most of the time when you hear of private capital moving into agriculture they are talking about buying farms. But storage is a logistical function of the marketplace,” he added.

Wilson said special market factors, such as changes to the Chicago Board of Trade wheat contract, have also had the cumulative effect of raising prices for grain storage.

“It’s very important that in the last five years the market price of storage has increased,” Wilson said. “That has provided incentives to construct storage and has provided incentive for new players to enter into this world.”

Don Grambsch, president of Riverland Ag Corp., a Minnesota firm owned by Ceres, operates 14 grain facilities in Minnesota, North Dakota, Wyoming, New York and Ontario with capacity to store 50 million bushels of grain. He said they don’t have investors storing grain as long-term holdings.

“I have not heard of them wanting to buy physicals,” he said. “We are a conventional grain company and store for third party users. ... They are not financial people, they are processors, beverage companies and so on.”


Wall St. investors and hedge funds continue to push money into speculative vehicles like grain-related indexes and funds that trade grain derivatives. Corn gains in the last five years look almost as impressive as gold’s.

But the traditional asset play on agriculture by Wall St. – farmland – has also pushed to dizzying heights.

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Wednesday said farmland prices in the Midwest in the second quarter were up 17 per cent from a year ago – the biggest jump in 34 years.

Most of the 226 bankers questioned in its quarterly survey said they expect prices to level off in the next three months – but a third also said they expected even more gains.

“Demand for farmland remained strong from both farmers and investors,” the Chicago Fed said.

It is the same story in the Plains. The Kansas City Fed Monday released its own banker survey showing similar results with farmland values up more than 20 per cent from a year ago.

University of Illinois Economist Gary Schnitkey attributes the soaring value of farmland to the sluggish economy and the inability of the United States, the European Union and other sovereign debtors to come to grips with fiscal imbalances.

“The threat of long-run instability places a premium on real assets over financial assets. This suggests that a more stable general economic outlook would lead to less aggressive growth in farmland prices,” Schnitkey said.


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domenica 21 agosto 2011

Forex: Swiss franc weakens

The Swiss franc was down for the second week as prospects of peg of the currency to the euro significantly reduced appeal of the franc a safe asset.

sabato 20 agosto 2011

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martedì 16 agosto 2011

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sabato 13 agosto 2011

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